5 Problem Solving Strategies From Charlie Munger
READING TIME: 4 MINUTES
Podcasts are becoming serious business. As of April 2019, there were over 700,000 podcasts to swipe through, ranging from gardening, to the history of gnomes, to dental hacks (seriously). There are 29 million episodes in 500 languages, and 51 percent of the US population has listened to a podcast. Plus, successful ones have the potential to make real money once they’ve built up an audience.
Let’s say I wanted to create a successful podcast to support Wealest. How do I do that? This is the problem I’m going to tackle using 5 relatively simple problem solving strategies you can start implementing right now. These ideas are inspired by Charlie Munger’s speech called “Practical Thought About Practical Thought?” in the book Poor Charlie’s Almanack. In the speech, Charlie outlines how he would go about building a billion dollar company like Coca-Cola using these techniques.
Here are 5 problem solving strategies you can start using right now:
1. Answer the most obvious questions first.
I’m going to start by answering the most obvious questions first. It’s obvious to me that most successful podcasts always have two people talking, so mine should follow suit - either the same two people, or a new guest each episode. Despite the innumerable important things I have to say, no one wants to listen to me drone on alone for hours on end…
I also note that great podcasts include people that know a lot about a general topic or subject matter. So my podcast should be on a general topic, with subject-matter experts discussing detailed aspects of that general topic each week.
If people are going to find my podcast, it needs to be easily searchable on the largest podcast platforms: Apple’s Podcast App, Spotify, and Google Play Music. I have no hope of building a successful podcast if I can’t jump this obvious hurdle.
I also know that a new episode should come out at the same time of the day, and on the same day of the week each week.
Finally, it strikes me that I should be well aware of the other podcasts in my subject area. Perhaps I should even try to appear on one in order to promote my new podcast to listeners already interested in that subject area.
These strike me as the most obvious questions that need answers right off the bat. If I can get these right, I’ll improve the odds of my podcast being a success.
2. Use simple math to study the problem.
For those without a quantitative (numbers) background, this one can be harder to grasp. Let’s say I’ve identified three highly important factors in my quest to build the world’s greatest podcast (my goal is getting loftier by the minute).
Firstly, I need to get an acclaimed MustardCoin investor (the latest and greatest crypto-currency), Jane Doe, onto my show. She’s a tough person to track down, but I think with a strong pitch, I have an 80 percent chance of getting her to agree to do it.
Secondly, I need to get my podcast listed on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and Google Play Music. From my research, this is relatively easy to do, and I estimate my chances stand at 90 percent to get approval from all three platforms.
Finally, I need to learn a basic podcast editing software in order to customize the length and content of each episode. I consider myself relatively tech-savvy, and I am a persistent learner. I place my odds at 95 percent.
These sound like pretty good odds, right? Remember, I need all of these to happen to be successful. Let’s see what the odds really are. Using the simple math of combinations, we multiply 0.80 x 0.90 x 0.95 = 0.68, or a 68 percent chance that all three of these scenarios fall my way. That’s helpful to know! My odds are not as good I had originally thought. Now, I can get to work finding ways to improve those odds.
3. Find out what will make your endeavor fail.
Charlie tells us that we need to think through problems not only forwards, but backwards as well. “Invert, always invert,” Charlie says. That means I have to ask myself what would cause this podcast to be my latest, greatest failure.
I can think of a few things off the top of my head:
1) Demonstratively false content. MustardCoin is trading at $80,000 a coin, not $65,000.
2) Sexist, racist, or generally exclusionary points of view. Podcast guests who are climate change deniers only, please.
3) Poor quality audio. Shtuck bmmzzz maltizzz shtancha mrucka musteedcon.
4) Boring, slow-paced content. This. Is. What. Boring. Content. Sounds. Like... Slow. Monotonous. One. Note.
So, I need make sure my topics are thoroughly researched, that I filter guests rigorously, ensure I have quality recording equipment, and keep the podcast interesting and lively. Invert, always invert!
4. Use mental models to see the problem from different points of view.
Charlie credits his success, in part, to looking at the world through a lattice of mental models built from elementary knowledge of each academic discipline. He weaves together math, physics, chemistry, engineering, accounting, history, psychology, philosophy, statistics, biology, and economics into a framework of worldly wisdom.
For example, from psychology, I understand that incentives are hugely powerful in affecting behavior. Perhaps it makes sense to incentivize listeners to come back after listening to the first episode by conducting a giveaway of one MustardCoin to a lucky listener of my second podcast episode.
From accounting, I should understand what kind of impact that is going to have on my budget for that episode (it’s $80,000 / MustardCoin for pete’s sake - whose idea was this???), and extrapolate that out if I plan to do a giveaway, say, every 10 episodes.
From biology and the concept of evolution, I know that for my podcast to survive, I need to be nimble and adaptable should I see a weakness in my format or competition from other podcasts in my niche market. If my first giveaway doesn’t create buzz, I need to try a different prize the next time around (KetchupKoin), tinkering until I find an optimal solution. Only through a multi-disciplinary approach will these ideas hang together cohesively.
5. Build an infrastructure where all components are pushing toward the same goal.
Charlie calls this the Lollapalooza effect: the critical mass (a notion from physics) obtained via “a combination of concentration, curiosity, perseverance, and self-criticism, applied through a prism of multi-disciplinary mental models.”
Basically, I need to get Steps 1-4 all working together and pushing towards the same outcome. If I can get all the simple questions right, use probability to make good decisions, avoid anything that will destroy my podcast, and examine the problem through various frameworks, I greatly improve my odds of building the greatest podcast ever to grace the airwaves.
With enough perseverance, magic really can happen. Just ask Charlie. He’s only worth a billion dollars.
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“Practical Thought About Practical Thought?” can be found in Poor Charlie’s Almanack.
Munger, C. T., & Kaufman, P. D. (2008). Poor Charlie's almanack: The wit and wisdom of Charles T. Munger. Virginia Beach, Va: Donning Co. Pub.